TEN STOCK MARKET MYTHS THAT JUST WON'T DIE

Read this article by Brett Arends in the Wall Street Journal. Sometimes we assume that since a principle is usually true, that it is always true. These ten myths will knock the props out from under your assumptions.

CENTRAL OREGON

Lin took this photo on the hillside above our campsite. We were hiking to the top of the ridge when she noticed this snag. The terrain is amazing. The view of the surrounding mountains is breathtaking.

SLIDING TOWARD DEFLATION

Read this article by Paul Krugman. Deflation happens when prices start going down. You would think that would be a good thing. However, it's not. When prices go down, people put off purchases, knowing that next month the price will be lower. A reduction in purchases causes higher unemployment, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. My recommendation is to be prudent, but not over-react.

THE 4 PERCENT RULE

Here is some more information on the 4 percent rule I discussed several months ago. The only suggestion I have to add is that your annual withdrawal each year should be 4% of the remaining principle, not 4% of the initial amount. There is a big difference. The worst case scenario would be a gradually decreasing nest egg. Theoretically you would never run out of money, because if your retirement reduces to just a few dollars, you are still removing only 4% of that amount each year. In the best case, your nest egg will return over 4% annually, which would allow your annual withdrawals to gradually increase.

CULTURAL POVERTY

Nicholas Kristof is a columnist for the New York Times. He has traveled extensively in the third world studying the effects of poverty on families. His guest column in the Oregonian May 25 titled, "When the Poor Spend Aid Unwisely," discusses how the very poor spend their money. The man of the house will typically spend the money they have on alcohol and cigarettes, leaving little for food or school expenses for the children. Because of this, the increasingly popular micro-loan programs are focused on the women.

The underlying theme seems to be that it is not so much the lack of money which creates the problem, as it is the personal values and spending habits of the men in the culture. Nicholas makes the point that we need to do a better job of directing aid money away from wine and prostitution and toward getting children in school and providing mosquito netting. I don't think the issue of deadbeat dads is confined to the third world. The recently popular Angela's Ashes describes the same issues in the urban poor of the early 20th century in the United States.

Drugs have always provided an escape from reality. In our culture it crosses all social classes, so it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with poverty. Perhaps it has more to do with a sense of hopelessness and despair. I don't know why the rich use drugs. Perhaps they are bored. Meth is the latest scourge, and it seems to impact both men and women equally.

Now we are in a crises. Mexico is in a fight for survival, fueled by the demand for drugs in the U.S. In Oregon, the state owns the liquor stores, and most states have a monopoly on gambling. I think there is a disconnect here. We dispense liquor and promote gambling, and crack down on others who want a share of the action. We have a government with a mandate to serve the people making millions of dollars on their addictions and weaknesses. Am I the only one who sees a problem?

April Showers, May Flowers

April showers do bring May flowers, but here in Western Oregon the showers still continue and it's almost June! At least we have green yards and lots of flowers. The plants love the cool weather. We finally planted tomatoes. Any earlier, and they would have drowned. I feel sorry for those who can't mow their grass on the one dry day we have each week. More wet weather is forecast, but I think we will have one dry afternoon this weekend so everyone can mow. I like the fresh air that the rain brings.

LAUGHTER

Laughter seems to be a natural anecdote for moodiness. Tuesday's Oregonian had an article about laughter yoga classes. People show up and laugh for about 30 minutes. No jokes, no funny movies, just laughing. I'm not sure I could get into the spirit of it. I like a good joke to get me started. Walking into a room full of strangers and participating in group laughter sounds almost wrong.

I think there was more laughter when families were larger. My mother was the oldest of seven, and family reunions were a gas. Uncle Howard was a master storyteller, and his yarns always began as a believable story, but ended with the listener as the victim of humor. My aunts were always quick to share funny stories and jokes. Consequently, laughter abounded when we all got together.

Perhaps it is more difficult to laugh when you only have two or three siblings, because there are fewer jokes and stories per person. We still have a good time, however, and someone always has a good story.

Proverbs says that a merry heart is good medicine. Remember that funny story, I want to hear it. If I get desperate I may have to attend laughter yoga class.

STARRY SPLENDOR

Here is another awesome photo. It makes me feel small. It makes God seem incomprehendable.

SPIRAL GALAXY

I retrieved this photo off the NASA website. It is 50 million light years away, so we are looking at what it was doing 50 million years ago. The center has a black hole of about 100 million solar masses. Our own galaxy's black hole is only a few million solar masses, so it is small by comparison. And to think that God merely spoke it all into existence.

SPRINGTIME

Spring is my favorite season. Flowers spring out of barkdust. You have no idea what is lurking beneath the soil. It also reminds me of new life. I like to be reminded of new life, since mine is getting less new every year. My son J.R. had an encouraging word, when he said, "Dad, you have a whole lot of deteoriating to do." He was referring to the next 20 years, of course. Time will eventually have it's way with my body, but for now I feel just like I did 40 years ago. That doesn't mean I have the endurance, just the feel good part. I want to feel good for a long time, so I can enjoy both my existing grandchildren and those yet unborn. I want them to enjoy the flowers with me. What is your favorite season?

ARIZONA SUNSET

SCENIC BEAUTY

This is a view of Mt Shasta at sunset. It was almost too dark, but the setting sun was reflecting off the snow, and we were able to get a decent photo. We took it from I-5 traveling North.

TRADITIONS

Once a year we decorate Christmas cookies. Lin makes them ahead of time, so by the time everyone arrives all she has to do is mix up the colors of frosting. Some family members are very artistic. Gitta made a Christmas tree, complete with framed walls (toothpicks). Erin designed an angel with a mustashe and announced it was me. I have a tendency to apply the frosting with less care, and then eat it if I don't like the results. What traditions do you enjoy?

WINTER PEACEFULNESS

Household pets love winter. All they do is lay around with the fire blazing brightly. If you disturb them, they look up as if to say, "Is there a problem?" Their visits outside through the animal door become much less frequent than during warmer weather. They don't like the cold, and they definitely don't like the rain. When you put cold and rain together our cat and dog both get a sarcastic view of going outside. "You expect me to do what out there? You don't do it outside. Why should I?" Fortunately, I am bigger, and I am the boss, so if someone needs to do their business, I gently but firmly take control. I don't really know when they need to go out, but there is an internal alarm in my head that begins quietly and increases in intensity if neither animal has made a move for the door after three hours. Speaking of taking control, I feel much more an authority in my house since the last human child departed. The only other voice is Lin, and she usually agrees with me.

BAGGAGE

Sometimes carrying a backpack is a good thing. Other times it is better left behind. I had a dream about mine. Tell me what you think it means:

My friend and I were standing outside behind the house. It was dark, but the porch light was on. The light reflected partially across the backyard. The snow was about 18 inches deep, but where we were standing under the eve there was just a skiff. We were going to head for a large tree at the back of the lot. There was a trail already in the snow which began at our feet and curved around to the left. I reached behind me and took my coat and pack off the hook and said, "I'll try it first." The air was cold. The first part of the trail was well worn, and easy to navigate. As I reached the point where the trail curved back toward the tree, the path became progressively less traveled, until finally there was only one set of footprints in the deep snow. I found I could stay on the path if I placed my feet in those tracks, because the snow was almost up to my knees. It was also getting harder, and I was beginning to feel the weight of the pack. Finally I had a revelation. I quickly ran back toward the house, and when I arrived I hung my coat and pack on the wall and told my friend, "There is only one set of tracks, leave all your stuff and just go for it." Without waiting for his reply, I turned and quickly retraced my steps. This time when I got to the deep snow, it was easy to follow those same tracks, but I did it running instead of laboriously walking. As I approached the tree's canopy I felt an intense presence of God, and since I was already running, I jumped the last six feet. Instead of landing, I awoke.

PHISHING AND OTHER SCAMS

My favorite witch quote is from Hansel and Gretel, "come closer, my dearie." Her entire house was made of candy in an attempt to trap unsuspecting children.

It's not much different today, with letters arriving in my email on a regular basis appealing to my greed with offers to get rich quick. If I were a child, candy would work, but as an adult I am now more sophisticated. Sometimes they appeal to my loyalty, claiming to be a friend stranded in England. The variety of appeals is endless and entertaining. It is tragic, however, when those more naive are trapped like a baby rabbit in the jaws of a coyote.

And then there are the phishing sites, drawing the unsuspecting to reveal their personal information.

Have you been the victim of a scam? So far I have avoided it. I have taken some precautions, such as freezing my credit, and using incredibly difficult passwords. Mostly, however, I have probably been lucky. I have found my suspicion almost becoming free floating. Lin asks for my wallet. I raise one eyebrow and hand it over slowly.

How have you been affected?

LORDS OF THE EARTH

Stanley Dale was an Australian commando in WWII. Don Richardson wrote this account of Stanley's life from childhood through his adulthood. Like Endurance, it is a study of leadership and what one man with an iron will can accomplish. Is there room for more than one leader in a small space? I'd like to get Teddy Roosevelt, Stanley Dale, and Ernest Shackleton together and then stand back and see what happens. (See my previous blogs on The River of Doubt and Endurance.)

Lords of the Earth follows Stanley Dale as he encounters and ministers to cannibals in Indonesia. This is not a book for the faint of heart. However, it is fascinating to read about a stone age culture and how it is changed when it encounters christianity.

EPIPHANY

Once in a while, perhaps once in a lifetime, something occurs that begins a dramatic shift in a person's world view. It's called an epiphany. The result is a long term change in how we relate to those around us, and if it is a spiritual awakening, it changes how we relate to God.

Here are accounts of three spiritual epiphanies:

C.S. Lewis (in a car on his way to the zoo)

In September, 1931, when Lewis was thirty three years old, he had a long discussion about Christianity with J.R.R. Tolkien (who was a devout Roman Catholic) and Hugo Dyson (a friend and committed Christian). That all-night conversation planted even more "seeds" in Lewis's heart. Lewis wrote in Surprised by Joy about what happened a week later as he headed out to a local zoo with his brother Warren: "When we set out I did not believe that Jesus Christ was the Son of God, and when we reached the zoo I did." Apparently sometime during that ride God touched Lewis's heart, and opened his eyes to Jesus' love and compassion. Was this his Damascus story -- conversion on the way to the zoo? Or was it a culmination of all the "seeds" that had been planted throughout Lewis's life? Only God and Lewis know for certain, but after his conversion, God certainly started to bless Lewis's life, including his writing.

Whittaker Chambers (in his kitchen)

I date my break with Communism to a very casual happening… My daughter was in her high chair. I was watching her eat. She was the most miraculous thing that had ever happened in my life. I liked to watch her even when she smeared porridge on her face or dropped it meditatively on the floor. My eye came to rest on the delicate convolutions of her ear – those intricate, perfect ears. The thought passed through my mind, ‘No, those ears were not created by chance coming together of atoms in nature (the Communist view). They could have been created only by immense design.’ The thought was involuntary and unwanted. I crowded it out of my mind. But I never wholly forgot it or the occasion. I had to crowd it out of my mind. If I had completed it, I should have had to say: Design supposes God. I did not then know that, at that moment, the finger of God was first laid on my forehead.

Charles Coleson (in his car)

I had the strange sensation that water was not only running down my cheeks but surging through my whole body as well, cleansing and cooling as it went. They weren’t tears of sadness and remorse, nor of joy—but somehow tears of relief.
And then I prayed my first real prayer. “God I don’t know how to find you, but I’m going to try! I’m not much the way I am now but somehow I want to give myself over to you.” I didn’t know how to say more so I repeated over and over the words “Take me.”
I had not “accepted” Christ—I still didn’t know who He was. My mind told me it was important to find that out first, to be sure that I knew what I was doing, that I meant it and would stay with it. Only that night something inside me was urging me to surrender—to what or to whom I did not know.

I have often wondered, do people have spiritual epiphanies away from God? I don't think they are as prevalent. Have you had one, either toward or away from God?

ISAIAH DANIEL

Meet Isaiah Daniel, our second grandchild. We enjoyed holding him and reveling in being grandparents on that first day of his birth. Now we look forward to many more years of enjoyment.

MONEY MAKING OPPORTUNITIES

Today I was staring at a picture on the wall and had a money-making revelation. It was a painting of a rushing river in the wilderness. You see them in every waiting room. I think they do that because when the nurse doesn't call your name in a timely fashion they are hoping you will lose yourself in daydreams of picnics and rafting experiences. It's the same reason that waiting rooms are painted in restful colors. It is not good if your blood pressure goes up higher than it already was. It was working with me. I was lost in a daydream of rushing water, and suddenly thought of a great opportunity for the right person to capitalize on it. You only need to have access to a rushing river, or waterfall, or pasture, or some other tranquil scene that transports the observer into a trance. It could even be an ant farm! You set up a camera and run it through a secure internet site. Those who join are given a password to access the video, and they run the signal to a framed flat screen in the wall. I can just imagine that first customer sitting in an office, figeting nervously. Then they happen to notice the painting on the wall. "Wait. Is that water moving? Is this some kind of trick?" People who are waiting to have their skin tumor examined are transported into a live world of action. When the nurse finally calls them, they are not only relaxed, but they don't care that it was an extra 30 minutes. They are waiting for the next raft of revelers to come around the bend. Meanwhile, the camera is sending out a 24 hour transmission to perhaps a thousand offices and homes, charging a nominal fee, which adds up to a sizeable sum. The possibilities are endless. The contracts could be set up similar to a cell tower, except the footprint would be minimal. If you are good with webcams, why not form a company setting up cameras in remote areas? Pay them $500 a month for camera privileges and make $5,000. Don't forget to send me 1% of the gross.

CENTRAL OREGON

Fall is the best season in Central Oregon. The nights are cold. Tonight it will be 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Days are blue skies and 65. The air is clear, and the mountains are all around. Morning walks are brisk. We have been staying at Eagle Crest just outside of Redmond every fall for about 15 years. It all started when Lin and I received an invitation for a time share presentation. We didn't buy one, but every referral to them generated "eagle dollars" we could spend in their restaurant. Lin's parents were the first, and they ended up buying a time share. Eventually that time share was passed on to a sibling, and we bought our own on Craig's List. Now the siblings can get together and enjoy the great climate. That reminds me of one of my pet peeves. I think time shares (purchased at the retail price) are a rip-off. The most a time share is worth is the annual maintenance fee. You can find them at great prices. Find your favorite place to go, and watch the internet for good buys. This economic climate provides an ideal opportunity.

FUN IN THE SUN (AGAIN)

Time for some fun in the sun. Here is grandchild Micah showing his camera face.

Lin drew the heart in the sand and with the sun at a very low angle it created some unusual lighting.

This photo looks like we are contemplating the meaning of life.

Don't you believe it.
We just tried to not smile.

CRANBERRIES AND DAD

After the service we stopped by a cranberry bog. The photo is me in a reflective moment.

A large part of Dad's life was cranberries. We moved from Kansas to Oregon in 1955. He first got involved in a co-op lumber mill. After a few years it went bankrupt, so he tried cranberries. That was more successful. Farming was in his blood. In Kansas he had raised wheat and had a dairy. Prior to that he drilled water wells. Growing cranberries was his focus until he retired in 1992 at age 80. Along the way he utilized his mechanical skills to keep things running smoothly. When I was about 14 we overhauled the little Ford tractor. You can learn a lot when you take an engine totally apart and see it spread before you in tiny pieces. Another time he admired the neighbor's bump gate, but didn't want to spend what it would cost to get one, so he built his own. It worked, but also terrorized the unsuspecting visitors who would bump it too hard, or too soft. It served its purpose well, which was to keep the deer out of the cranberry bogs. All the bogs had a six foot fence surrounding them. In the spring, one deer could knock a lot of berries off the vines and do considerable damage. I think if Dad had been born in my generation he would have been a mechanical engineer. Part of his longevity can be attributed to Mom's healthy cooking. Dad would tease her about it, "If it tastes good, spit it out." In reality, we all loved her cooking. He often spoke about retirement, but Mom talked him out of it, "Now what would you do?" They finally did retire, and moved to Coquille to be closer to their church.

HOPE

(photos by son in law Dan Holcomb)

Dad did pass on. He was only sick for about 3 days. We were all grateful that he did not have to suffer. We had a small graveside service in Coquille. Not too many attended; he had outlived most of his friends. The service was one of hope. That's what I like about Christian funerals. There is always so much hope and joy, and we know we will see him again. He had a long, full life. You can go back to my blog entries last year and read more details. I'll miss picking him up for coffee every afternoon.

FRAGILITY

I have been reminded again of the
fragility of life.

My father will be 97 in September.
A recent health crises has brought
the siblings together. At this time it is too early to know the outcome. What factors have contributed to his long life? I can think of a few possibilites: oatmeal for breakfast; a wife that cooked healthy meals; nonsmoker; nondrinker; working full time until age 80; serving God with right decisions. So many things.

Now he is surrounded with children and grandchildren that cherish him. They stroke his forehead while he slips in and out of sleep.

He has made a few comments... "What are we waiting for?" "Well, I guess I had better get up." We remind him that he is in the hospital, and who is in the room. He seems to be strangely at peace with all that is going on in his body.

Will I live as long? Will I be at peace when I am old? A lot of questions are unanswerable, but I do know that he has set a good example. I love you, Dad.

CHILDREN AND THINKING

I have been fascinated by the sameness of children the world over.
This is a picture of children in North Korea. They could just as well
be from Central or South America, Japan, or many other countries.
The word I think of most to describe children is "innocence." I wonder
if children who grow up in an oppressive culture ever reach an age
where they begin to question what they have been taught. I tend to think they do. It's part of our human spirit. Even in our culture of democracy, teenagers often question the political and religious system they grow up in, and end up redefining their role in society differently from their parents. I think the ability to question authority is good, because otherwise people could never break free from patterns of bondage in their thinking. Someday North Korea may join South Korea, just as East Germany joined West Germany. It makes me examine my own world view. Do I have patterns of thinking that others consider harmful? I'm glad truth is not relative. Of course, that's my perspective. It seems that I am forced to look at everything through my own lens. I feel good about my lens. It gives me the ability to understand the world. I am at peace with God, and I see the world through that lens. What does your lens tell you about the world?

SEPARATION

We spent a few days in the sun. I had to come back for work, while Lin remained behind. I'll join her again shortly. It's been about 30 years since we have been apart for any length of time. You don't realize how your lives become intertwined. Consequently, I've been thinking about the ramifications of separation. When my mom passed away, Dad told me it was hard to read the mail by himself. They had a routine, and his role was to look at each envelope, and hand it to her to open. He really missed that. I told Lin that I miss her telling me she is hungry, and me telling her what she wants to eat. Somehow, I know. It makes me realize that the pain of separation cannot happen without first experiencing the joy of togetherness. I feel grieved for those that cannot experience the pain of separation because they have no one with which to experience the joy of oneness. I think I have a better understanding now of what the Bible means when it says "the two shall become one." Have you experienced the joy of oneness, or the pain of separation? Was it temporary, or permanent?

GREED

Greed seems to be the word that is ushering us into the new millennium. I would just as soon not have it around. We can blame it for our national lifestyle, resulting in the real estate bubble and crash we are all now experiencing. What happens now? Does it go underground? Do we hide our greed and bring it out again when the economy turns upward? I suggest we ban it forever. Replace it with give. Of course that won't happen.

Human nature and greed seem to be forever linked. The best we seem to be able to do is pass multiple layers of laws to control its effects. I like the example of the farmer selling milk. For years, he sells milk to his neighbors, and all is well. Then his business begins to grow, and he begins shipping it to the nearby town. He doesn't personally know the city folk, so a little contamination doesn't have the weight that it normally would if you sold bad milk to your friend across the road. The added benefit is more profit to the bottom line.

Eventually, quality control becomes an issue, and the government gets involved. They pass laws about selling milk to control what the dairyman should have done in the first place. The laws are a response to greed. How many laws would cease to have meaning if greed went away? We could ask the same question about other vices, such as hatred, or jealousy.

We are forced to pass laws to make us do what we should have done in the first place. It makes me think we are all like selfish children. Fortunately, a change of heart is possible. I am reminded of a verse in the bible; "...in him we live and move and have our being." We no longer live for ourselves, but I find it is always good to evaluate my motives.

Am I the only one?

FUN IN THE SUN

We recently spent some time in the sun. It was like Oregon in the month of August. Oregon truly is a remarkable place in the summer. Phoenix is remarkable in the winter. Too bad they are so far apart.

There is a reason so many retire in that location. Imagine waking up to blue skies every morning. Add in moderate temperatures at night and shirtsleeve weather during the day. Our dog liked it too. I've never seen so many golf courses. Glendale has a city park littered with little hills for hiking. They call them mountains. We went to the top of one and back down in less than an hour.

What is your favorite weather?

KIDS SAY THE DARNDEST THINGS

Yesterday, Bethany, our youngest (age 22) in casual conversation asked, "Who is Art Linkletter? Nothing reminds me more of my age than a question like that. With two of our three already having homes of their own I am desperately playing catch up. I still see them all as somewhere between two and six years old. They would have been great on Art's show.

Lin reminded us this morning that when Bethany was first learning to read she liked to intercept the mail. One day she held up a letter, laughed, and said, "Look Mom. Here is a letter addressed to Daddy but they called him Mrs."

Our middle child Erin had a repuation for speaking her mind. At about age two she told her grandpa to close his mouth while chewing.

J.R. our oldest, in a conversation with his mother, was told about what plastic surgeons do. He thought for a long moment, and then asked, "What would happen if they used a real surgeon?"

Now, with our grandchild Micah quickly approaching age two, it starts all over. I am determined to chew with my mouth closed.

CHRISTMAS DINNER

It's nice having a decent camera on my phone. This is a photo of the table I sat at Friday night. The dinner was provided by FOCUS, an organization that helps PSU international students. Lin and I are volunteers. We fed about 200 students. I sat with a brother and sister from Saudia Arabia, a girl from Japan, and a guy from Sweden. They were all delightful. Someday we must go to Saudia Arabia. If we do, it will be in the winter. This time of year it is in the low 70s and high 60s. I don't think I would like their summer. I don't like extreme cold, either, so I will avoid Sweden in the winter. If you had six months to teach English, where would you go?

THE ULTIMATE PHONE

After 12 months of indecision, we finally dumped T-mobile. I was waiting for the gphone to make its debut before deciding. With it's android platform, the gphone is likely the phone of the future. However, I decided against it, because the first version doesn't have a standard audio-out jack, and I wanted to use Pandora in the car. I went with the iphone. I've only had it two weeks, but so far I have no complaints. It is definitely the cadillac of the cell phones. I also like the broader coverage range of AT&T. Tell me your thoughts about cell phones. Do you have one? What do you like about it?

THE DREAM

I was going down a flight of stairs. On one of the landings I met my dad coming up. He was younger. I was delighted. We hugged, and then I realized that my head only came up to his chest. I looked up, and his head was only a couple of inches from the ceiling. It must have been an old house for the ceiling to be that low. I said, "When I grow up, my head will touch the ceiling." I was sobbing the whole time. He just smiled. Then suddenly, I was grown up and I was looking down at him. He became very old, and collapsed into my arms. I held him as he died.

ZEITGEIST

Sometimes something comes along that says it all again. It brings up all the old issues to a new generation, packaged especially for them. Zeitgeist is such a format. I've recently been reading Isaac Asimov's Foundation series. It was published in the early fifties. Asimov was an athiest, and his books make statements about religion and other pet topics. If he were alive now, he would have authored parts of Zeitgeist. I suggest you watch it. I thought conspiracy theorists were all my age. I had no idea it has all been resurrected on a presentable platter for consumption by a new generation. Watch the movie, and tell me what the agenda is.

TIM CONWAY

Tim Conway did a dental skit with Harvey Korman on the Carol Burnett Show years ago. Everyone should see it. The next time you visit the dentist, you'll be glad he is competent.

MONK

It's time to promote my favorite program. Monk has finally come to network television. It has been on cable for several years. Up until now, the only way we have been able to watch it is to rent the videos of past shows. I'm not sure why I like it. Maybe I recognize something of myself in his personality. We all have obsessive-compulsive tendencies. Monk lives it, so we don't have to.

The writers of this show have had a lot of fun thinking up interesting scenarios for someone with OCD. So far my favorite scene is when he is strapped down in the dentist chair and the dentist is preparing to torture him. Monk isn't overly worried about the torture, but he is concerned that the dentist isn't wearing gloves. He begs, "In the name of all that is holy, please wash your hands."

There is a lesson in this for all of us. Sometimes we become overly concerned with the small things, while not giving proper attention to what is really important. I think we need to stay focused. This week in Portland we had a house slide down a hill. Those below saw it coming toward them, and the father started to retrieve his new Honda. He was stopped by his son, who properly recognized that his dad's life was more important than the car. I hope there will always be those around who will remind me of what is really important, and I trust I will do the same for them.

IT PAYS TO BE BLAND

Here is more information to support my suspicions about creativity. There are some advantages of being dull.

PRIORITIES

Economic times like this are being described as unprecedented. It makes me examine my priorities. How important is it for me to have a retirement nest egg? What if I lose my job? What if I can't pay my bills?

What is the worst case scenario? Will the entire banking system collapse? Some families are facing hard decisions right now. Others will face them in the coming months. In these past economic boom years we have had beggars at the main intersections just off the freeway, with cardboard signs and messages designed to inspire guilt. Will they lose their job too? Will the guilt donations slow, or will their numbers swell?

Will we hear accounts of suicides because fortunes have been lost? How prepared am I to face several years of economic slowdown? What is my responsibility to others?

There is an investment that does not lose value. That is when we invest in the lives of others. I find myself evaluating my investing. I try to be prudent and save for retirement, but what about those I love? Has my attempt to be financially responsible taken away from investing in people? I hope not. After all, if an economic collapse occurs, I'll need lots of people to hang out with. That doesn't cost any money.

FINANCIAL UNCERTAINTY

There is a lot of uncertainty in the financial markets at this time. Although I'm not a supporter of Ron Paul's isolationism, he does make sense when it comes to money. Read this and tell me what you think.

DESPAIR AND CREATIVITY

I've often wondered what there is about despair that drives creativity and expression. Some of our most creative authors were driven by inner demons. Jack London and Ernest Hemmingway are two that come to mind. Both of them chose suicide to escape the torment.

Despair is something that we all face from time to time, as circumstances dictate. The kind I'm referring to is when the chemicals in the brain malfunction, causing a deep, dark depression with no apparent cause. For some unknown reason, despair can trigger a depth of creativity that would not otherwise be apparent. Sometimes it manifests in writing, sometimes in the arts. It doesn't have to be debilating.

I believe sustained hopelessness can result in sustained creativity. I started thinking more about this after reading an article by Lynn Lauber in the September/October 2008 issue of AARP. She is a professional writer, and teaches creative writing. Her article, "The Mourning Spot" discusses the death of a parent. I was blown away by her writing ability, and also her lack of hope. I would call it a mild case of despair. I read the article three times, because it was like eating a favorite dessert. It's not that I enjoy reading about death. It's that practically every paragraph has a descriptive nugget. It was like finding a chocolate chip in your favorite brownie. If she ever teaches creative writing in Portland, I'll be there.

AARP

Since age is the topic of the hour, I thought I'd mention the AARP magazine. My secretary loaned us her copy. This is a magazine that if I see it in a waiting room, I discreetly look away. After all, it carries stigma, kind of like those newspapers they sell at the local checkout. Everyone knows that succumbing to reading AARP will hasten the appearance of the angel of death.

My suspicions about what they publish in that magazine have only been limited by my imagination. I could just see articles titled, "Ex Airline Pilot drowns in commode," or "Lunatic Nurse Goes on Hypodermic Rampage." Lin was bold and opened it first. She has always been more of a risk taker. I halfway expected to see wrinkles form quickly around her eyes, and her body begin to sag. I was surprised. Her body remained intact, and as she shared some of the content, I realized I have been guilty of stereotyping. It actually had good articles. In fact, there was some of the best writing I have seen in a long time. (I'll blog about one of the authors in a few days.)

They should change the name of the magazine. I suggest "Intelligent Reader," or "Magazine for Brains Not Full of Mush." Lin suggested "Journey's End." I told her that would drive people away. "AARP" seems to be such a bland title. I hope they change the name.

AGING

This month I had a birthday. We had some friends and family over, with lots of food and homemade ice cream. I had a great time. That's good, since it was my birthday.

My father celebrates his 96th next month. I tell him only four more years until he gets a letter from the president. I am assuming, of course that the president will still be doing that. The tradition that began years ago with just a few letters per month is quickly becoming unwieldy. By the time my generation become centurions, the postage will be a budget line item.

Having a birthday has caused me to think a lot about aging. This was the big six-0 for me. I used to think I was old when I turned 40. Now, I don't think I'll be old until I hit 75. Statistically, I hope to have another ten years of relatively good health before I have to physically slow down. Realistically, my health could fail without notice. It feels like a tightrope, with life on one side and death on the other. I don't sense the precariousness, however, because I made peace with God long ago. I'm more interested in the quality of life.

Several years ago my friend Carol recommended a book titled Success to Significance, by Bob Buford. The basic premise of the book is that as we age, our focus should slowly change from providing for our family, to one of ministry to others. It takes on a natural progression, gradually beginning in our early fifties, and continuing into retirement. I like the idea. It appeals to me more than playing shuffleboard for the next twenty years. One must also be realistic, however. I know one couple who is heavily involved in several ministry activities, all in the evening. They save their daytime hours for doctor visits. That doesn't appeal to me. I would rather be hiking during the day.

The increasingly inward focus as one ages is also scary. I know older adults are many times fixated on blood pressure, bowels, and medication. I understand how that happens, and I will fight it tooth and nail. I also know that a person's failing physical health can absorb all their energy. If you come and visit, and I start talking about my ailments, please hit me alongside the head. My dad has never focused on his health. Of course, he doesn't remember anything from one day to the next, so perhaps his failing memory is a blessing. When we go out for coffee in the afternoon, he doesn't remember what he had for lunch. He loves the visits from his sister in Texas, but about three days after she leaves, his memory of the good times dim to almost nothing.

They say we are only as old as we feel. When I'm not exerting myself, I feel 25. The key is to live life without unnecessary exertion. That way, you can live every day thinking you are younger than you really are. You only come up against hard reality when you go help your son and daughter-in-law work in their yard. It's been two weeks, and my back is just now feeling normal again. Next time I'll spend more hours holding the grandchild. There's no downside to that.

THE DRIFTING MOUSE

We have an older Dell laptop that has been giving us fits for the past year. The mouse would spontaneously begin drifting, and if it came in contact with any icons, it would activate them. In addition, adjusting the screen would cause random "static." The only way to bring the screen back was to slap it soundly on the side. I was ready to give it away. Last week Lin tried a Google search. You can find anything on Google. She found a link that described the mouse problem exactly. They claimed it was a hardware issue. All we had to do was insert a piece of clear plastic or cellophane under the touchpad, between the touchpad and a flat strip of metal. It took some courage to start taking the laptop apart, but we had nothing to lose. I found that the clear part of a business envelope that lets the address show through was perfect. At first it was too flimsy, but slipped right in when reinforced with clear scotch tape. It has been over a week, and the mouse hasn't drifted once. The screen malfunction is also gone. I couldn't ask for a nicer birthday present. Thank you, Lin.

THE WEATHER

Finally, the weather has changed. This year in western Oregon we did not have a spring. It went from wet and cool to dry and hot. I prefer dry and hot. In fact, the hotter the better. I know there must be an upper limit, but I haven't found it. Of course, my experience is limited to Oregon, so what do I know? Once, several years ago, I remember it was 106 in August. That was unusual for Portland. We drove to Phoenix that week, and when we arrived it was only in the 80's, but quite humid. That was my first experience with humidity, and right then I knew I didn't like humidity. I prefer dry heat. Most of the time in Portland we consider it hot if the temperature gets above 90. That doesn't happen too often. Our weather here in the summer is almost perfect. We have people who come on vacation from other parts of the country, and after just one visit, they decide that we live in heaven. They go back home, pack up, and move to Oregon. Then, when winter arrives, they realize that they were tricked into moving to hell. We actually have people suffer from lack of sunshine, and we call it SAD (seasonal affective disorder). It doesn't happen in central or eastern Oregon, just here where it rains and rains and rains. How hot does it get where you live?

THE FOUR PILLARS OF INVESTING

Anyone interested in managing their own investments should read this book by William Bernstein. Pillar One is The Theory of Investing. Pillar Two is The History of Investing. Pillar Three is The Psychology of Investing, and Pillar Four is The Business of Investing. He concludes the book by discussing investment strategy using the four pillars.

(Go here to read a recent magazine interview where he discusses investment strategy.)

The chapter on a history of manias goes back in history and highlights some incredible times in the past when whole societies were caught up in investment madness. The end result was always a crash. Our recent housing bubble has a lot of similarities to past manias. We definitely can learn lessons today by studying examples from the past.

Bernstein does not have kind words for financial brokers. The reason is that anyone with the time to educate themselves doesn't need to pay commissions to an adviser. In fact, that is the only reason to ever have a broker. Everyone else can do it on their own. The only reason I have a job as a financial representative is because there are a lot of people who, for one reason or another, are not educated and are not interested in doing their own investing.

Read the book, and use it to jump start your education.

APPEASEMENT

One of the best articles I have ever read on the dangers of appeasement appeared in the June 7th 2008 issue of the Wall Street Journal. It is by Michael Ledeen, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. I have pasted it below in its entirety. Let me know if you agree or disagree.



Resident Scholar Michael A. Ledeen

Ever since World War II, we have been driven by a passionate desire to understand how mass genocide, terror states and global war came about--and how we can prevent them in the future.
Above all, we have sought answers to several basic questions: Why did the West fail to see the coming of the catastrophe? Why were there so few efforts to thwart the fascist tide, and why did virtually all Western leaders, and so many Western intellectuals, treat the fascists as if they were normal political leaders, instead of the virulent revolutionaries they really were? Why did the main designated victims--the Jews--similarly fail to recognize the magnitude of their impending doom? Why was resistance so rare?
Why are we failing to see the mounting power of evil enemies? Why do we treat them as if they were normal political phenomena, as Western leaders do when they embrace negotiations as the best course of action?
Most eventually accepted a twofold "explanation": the uniqueness of the evil, and the lack of historical precedent for it. Italy and Germany were two of the most civilized and cultured nations in the world. It was difficult to appreciate that a great evil had become paramount in the countries that had produced Kant, Beethoven, Dante, and Rossini.
How could Western leaders, let alone the victims, be blamed for failing to see something that was almost totally new--systematic mass murder on a vast scale, and a threat to civilization itself? Never before had there been such an organized campaign to destroy an entire "race," and it was therefore almost impossible to see it coming, or even to recognize it as it got under way.
The failure to understand what was happening took a well-known form: a systematic refusal to view our enemies plain. Hitler's rants, whether in "Mein Kampf" or at Nazi Party rallies, were often downplayed as "politics," a way of maintaining popular support. They were rarely taken seriously as solemn promises he fully intended to fulfill. Mussolini's call for the creation of a new Italian Empire, and his later alliance with Hitler, were often downplayed as mere bluster, or even excused on the grounds that, since other European countries had overseas territories, why not Italy?
Some scholars broadened the analysis to include other evil regimes, such as Stalin's Russia, which also systematically murdered millions of people and whose ambitions similarly threatened the West. Just as with fascism, most contemporaries found it nearly impossible to believe that the Gulag Archipelago was what it was. And just as with fascism, we studied it so that the next time we would see evil early enough to prevent it from threatening us again.
By now, there is very little we do not know about such regimes, and such movements. Some of our greatest scholars have described them, analyzed the reasons for their success, and chronicled the wars we fought to defeat them. Our understanding is considerable, as is the honesty and intensity of our desire that such things must be prevented.
Yet they are with us again, and we are acting as we did in the last century. The world is simmering in the familiar rhetoric and actions of movements and regimes--from Hezbollah and al Qaeda to the Iranian Khomeinists and the Saudi Wahhabis--who swear to destroy us and others like us. Like their 20th-century predecessors, they openly proclaim their intentions, and carry them out whenever and wherever they can. Like our own 20th-century predecessors, we rarely take them seriously or act accordingly. More often than not, we downplay the consequences of their words, as if they were some Islamic or Arab version of "politics," intended for internal consumption, and designed to accomplish domestic objectives.
Clearly, the explanations we gave for our failure to act in the last century were wrong. The rise of messianic mass movements is not new, and there is very little we do not know about them. Nor is there any excuse for us to be surprised at the success of evil leaders, even in countries with long histories and great cultural and political accomplishments. We know all about that. So we need to ask the old questions again. Why are we failing to see the mounting power of evil enemies? Why do we treat them as if they were normal political phenomena, as Western leaders do when they embrace negotiations as the best course of action?
No doubt there are many reasons. One is the deep-seated belief that all people are basically the same, and all are basically good. Most human history, above all the history of the last century, points in the opposite direction. But it is unpleasant to accept the fact that many people are evil, and entire cultures, even the finest, can fall prey to evil leaders and march in lockstep to their commands. Much of contemporary Western culture is deeply committed to a belief in the goodness of all mankind; we are reluctant to abandon that reassuring article of faith. Despite all the evidence to the contrary, we prefer to pursue the path of reasonableness, even with enemies whose thoroughly unreasonable fanaticism is manifest.
This is not merely a philosophical issue, for to accept the threat to us means--short of a policy of national suicide--acting against it. As it did in the 20th century, it means war. It means that, temporarily at least, we have to make sacrifices on many fronts: in the comforts of our lives, indeed in lives lost, in the domestic focus of our passions--careers derailed and personal freedoms subjected to unpleasant and even dangerous restrictions--and the diversion of wealth from self-satisfaction to the instruments of power. All of this is painful; even the contemplation of it hurts.
Then there is anti-Semitism. Old Jew-hating texts like "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion," now in Farsi and Arabic, are proliferating throughout the Middle East. Calls for the destruction of the Jews appear regularly on Iranian, Egyptian, Saudi and Syrian television and are heard in European and American mosques. There is little if any condemnation from the West, and virtually no action against it, suggesting, at a minimum, a familiar Western indifference to the fate of the Jews.
Finally, there is the nature of our political system. None of the democracies adequately prepared for war before it was unleashed on them in the 1940s. None was prepared for the terror assault of the 21st century. The nature of Western politics makes it very difficult for national leaders--even those rare men and women who see what is happening and want to act--to take timely, prudent measures before war is upon them. Leaders like Winston Churchill are relegated to the opposition until the battle is unavoidable. Franklin Delano Roosevelt had to fight desperately to win Congressional approval for a national military draft a few months before Pearl Harbor.
Then, as now, the initiative lies with the enemies of the West. Even today, when we are engaged on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan, there is little apparent recognition that we are under attack by a familiar sort of enemy, and great reluctance to act accordingly. This time, ignorance cannot be claimed as an excuse. If we are defeated, it will be because of failure of will, not lack of understanding. As, indeed, was almost the case with our near-defeat in the 1940s.

Michael A. Ledeen is a resident scholar at AEI.

APOLOGY ACCEPTED

Have you ever had someone apologize to you and somehow it sounded hollow? You find yourself thinking, "What are they really saying?" My favorite non-apologies are the ones that use the word "if." For example, "I'm sorry if I offended you." What is the real meaning? Why don't they just come out and and say, "I realize you have a problem with my rudeness, and I'm sorry you can't get over it." This is very common between spouses, especially early in the marriage. Since I'm a guy, I'm very familiar with what guys say, so I'll use the male example. I bring home a new toy (here you fill in your favorite toy that you slobber on everytime you go to the mall or car dealer). I bring it home, and my wife goes through the roof. What is my apology? "I'm sorry if I offended you. I should have discussed it with you first." In other words, "Get over it woman, I've already spent the money on my selfish desires and I'm always going to feed this little boy what he wants. I really don't care about your needs or the future financial needs of our family." It's no wonder that my apology doesn't go very far. She knows what I am really saying. What would be a sincere apology? How about, "I now realize what a selfish, inconsiderate jerk I have been, and how far I have to go to really grow up. I'm going to work at putting the needs of my family first, and to demonstrate my sincerity, I will return this toy." That is hard to say, because little boys don't say that, and if they did, it would not be sincere. It's no wonder we see conflicts in marriage. I think little boys tend to grow up only when they have conflict. If they survive the early years of the marriage, and learn to put the needs of others first, they ususally turn into somewhat acceptable examples of manhood. We read about guys like this all the time in the advice columns of the newspaper. They are stories about someone whose actions have demonstrated that they need to be taken out and whipped. I can just hear in my mind as I read those stories, a rising chorus of women's voices volunteering to do the whipping in the name of all that is fair and just.